Yesterday I offered some predictions and analysis of the Western Conference playoff match-ups. Today, let's take a look at the first round series' in the East.
1. Pittsburgh Penguins vs 8. New York Islanders
Season Series: 4-1-0 Pens
The Isles are going to be in tough against the highest scoring team in the NHL. Despite injuries to many of their top stars, the Penguins showed the depth and skill of their offense scoring 3.38 goals per game. Sidney Crosby led the way with 56 points, despite missing 12 games due to injury. However, Crosby is expected back soon, and will make a forward group that includes Chris Kunitz (52pts), Pascal Dupuis (38pts) and James Neal (21 goals) that much better. Throw Art Ross trophy winners Evgeni Malkin and Jarome Iginla into the mix, and Pittsburgh's offense might be unstoppable. The Islanders were no scoring slouches either, as they finished 7th overall for goals scored. However the Islanders don't have as much depth and will rely heavily on the top line of John Tavares (47pts), Matt Moulson (44pts) and Brad Boyes (35pts). Where New York will certainly struggle is on the other side of the puck, as they had the worst goals against of any playoff qualifying team (2.83). The Penguins weren't much better to be honest (2.48gaa), so this series may come down to who can outscore the other. Pittsburgh will start Marc-Andre Fleury in goal, who had an inconsistent regular season and has had a tendency to implode at times in the playoffs since their 2009 Stanley Cup. The Penguins, knowing this, went out and got some insurance this summer in the form of Tomas Vokoun. He had a similar season as Fleury and may get the call if Fleury struggles at any point. The Islanders will go with Evgeni Nabokov, who isn't the goalie he used to be in San Jose, but stole more than a few games this year for the Isles. The Islanders would do well to stay out of the box in this series, as the Penguins power play was absolutely lethal, scoring at a 24.7% rate, while the Islanders penalty killing was only 80.3%. Luckily the Penguin's pk was even worse, sitting 25th overall in the NHL at just 79.6%. The Pens however were the second best team in the league five on five, while the Isles were ranked 19th.
Key Players:
Penguins: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jarome Iginla, Kris Letang, Marc-Andre Fleury
Islanders: John Tavares, Matt Moulson, Mark Streit, Evgeni Nabokov
Prediction: 4-1 Penguins. The Penguins have never won a playoff series against the Islanders, but their last meeting was in 1993 and things have certainly changed since then. The Islanders must hope to stay out of the box and draw some penalties to take advantage of their offense if they are to have any chance against the deadly Pens.
2. Montreal Canadiens vs 7. Ottawa Senators
Season Series: 3-1-1 Habs
It's not the all-Canadian first round match-up that people were hoping for, but this one will still garner national attention. Though the Habs don't have a true superstar up front, they still managed to finish 3rd in the East with 3.04 goals per game. They have a deep offense led by Max Pacioretty (39pts), Michael Ryder (35pts) and high scoring defensemen P.K. Subban (38pts) and Andrei Markov (30pts). The Senators on the other hand, struggled to put the puck in the net and finished a terrible 27th overall for goals scored. Losing star center Jason Spezza and Norris winner Erik Karlsson for long periods due to injury really hurt the offense, and no Senator scored more than 30 points this season. Trade deadline acquisition Cory Conacher finished with 28 points, though that number was largely inflated by playing with Tampa Bay, and Kyle Turris was second in team scoring with 27 points. Without two of their all-stars, the Sens were forced to play a more defensively responsible game and were outstanding, allowing the fewest goals in the East. Montreal struggled with inconsistency on defense, as generally they played a solid game, but were apt to just fall apart at times during the regular season. Much of that had to do with the play of goalie Carey Price, who looked like a Vezina candidate on some nights, and like he belonged in the AHL on others. Price will surely start this series, but the Habs have shown no fear to put backup Peter Budaj in when he has faltered. The true strength of the Sens lies in goal, where Craig Anderson had one of the greatest seasons in recent memory. He missed part of the year with injury, but his brilliant 1.69 goals against average and .941 save percentage were both tops in the NHL. It's no surprise then that the Sens had the best penalty kill in the NHL, an incredibly efficient 88.0%, though they struggled on the power play. As is to be expected, the Habs had the opposite problem, they were very good on the pp, but struggled to kill penalties. As a result the special teams in this series could even out, though Montreal has a distinct advantage five on five.
Key Players:
Canadiens: Max Pacioretty, Michael Ryder, Tomas Plekanec, P.K. Subban, Andrei Markov, Carey Price
Senators: Daniel Alfredsson, Kyle Turris, Sergei Gonchar, Erik Karlsson, Craig Anderson
Prediction: 4-3 Senators. This is the classic match-up of two opposing forces: offense versus defense. The Habs are deadly on the power play and five on five, but had difficulty keeping the puck out of their own net. The Sens are a brick wall, but have trouble getting many dangerous offensive chances. In the end, Anderson will be the difference in this one.
3. Washington Capitals vs 6. New York Rangers
Season Series: 2-0-1 Rangers
It was a down then up season for both clubs, as neither was in the playoff picture a month ago but managed to finish hot and clinch a post-season berth. The Caps can thank Alex Ovechkin for that, as he scored 14 goals in his final 13 games to capture his record 3rd Rocket Richard trophy. He was backed up by Mike Ribeiro (49pts), Nicklas Backstrom (48pts) and Troy Brouwer (19 goals) as the Caps were once again one of the highest scoring teams in the league. Prior to the season, with the addition of star winger Rick Nash, it was thought that the Rangers would be up there too. It didn't work out that way, as the Rangers played a more defensive system which forced Marian Gaborik out of town. Nash (42pts), Derek Stepan (44pts) and Brad Richards (34pts) were the top point producers for New York. Where the Rangers struggled on offense though, they flourished on defense, allowing only 2.25 goals per game. The D corps in New York is headed up by young stars Michael Del Zotto, Ryan McDonagh, Dan Girardi and Marc Staal, who all had fantastic seasons. The Caps simply can't match the depth of quality of the Rangers defense but could take advantage on special teams. Washington had, by far, the best power play in the league, operating at 26.8%, while the Rangers penalty kill was a surprisingly pedestrian 81.1%. The Rangers had better do all they can to stay away from that power play, as they were one of the best teams five on five in the entire league. In goal, it looks like the Caps will go with Braden Holtby, who assumed the starter's role this year over Michal Neuvirth and has a solid season. For the Rangers, there is no choice but last year's Vezina winner Henrik Lundqvist, who might earn another nomination after an amazing season.
Key Players:
Captials: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Ribeiro, Mike Green, John Carlson, Braden Holtby
Rangers: Rick Nash, Brad Richards, Ryan Callahan, Michael Del Zotto, Henrik Lundqvist
Prediction: 4-3 Capitals. Honestly, can I just call it a tie? There's no doubt here that the Caps are going to score their fair share of goals, but the Rangers are a hard working, defensively responsible team and can wear them down. However if the Caps can keep their intense offensive production going, and Hotlby can repeat his excellent performance in last year's playoffs, Washington should take this one. Barely.
4. Toronto Maple Leafs vs 5. Boston Bruins
Season Series: 3-1-0
The Bruins have dominated the Leafs the last few years in the regular season but the series between these two old rivals, the first since 1973, is going to be a good one. The Leafs were a high scoring team this season, led by the infamously former Bruin Phil Kessel (52pts), a breakout year by Nazem Kadri (44pts) and new acquisition James van Riemsdyk (32pts). The Bruins struggled to find the back of the net a bit more this year than they were used to, and top guns Tyler Seguin and Milan Lucic had down years. Still, Brad Marchand (36pts) trade deadline rental Jaromir Jagr (35pts) and David Krejci (33pts) lead an offense that gets contributions from all four lines. The real strength of Boston though is on defense, as they allowed the 3rd fewest goals in the NHL. Zdeno Chara's imposing stature can still dominate games from the backend, and no Bruins regular defenseman finished in the minus category. The story is different in Toronto, as top pairing Dion Phaneuf and Carl Gunnarsson will have to do most of the heavy lifting for a team that finished 17th in goals against. The Bruins will go with Tuukka Rask in net, who has exceeded all expectations since taking over the starting role from Tim Thomas. Rask's 1.97 goals against average, .930 save percentage and 5 shutouts were all top five in the NHL. James Reimer will get the call for Toronto, after a breakout season in which he picked up 19 wins and kept the Leafs in many close games. However, like most of the Leafs roster, he has no playoff experience and it's not known how he will perform under that pressure. Toronto wins the special teams battle, as they had a phenomenal penalty kill (87.9%) and adequate power play (18.7%). The Bruins penalty kill was good as well (87.1%), but their power play was absolutely anemic, scoring only 8 times all year. It's also worth noting that the Bruins were by far the best faceoff team in the league, winning 56.4% of their draws.
Key Players:
Maple Leafs: Phil Kessel, Nazem Kadri, Dion Phaneuf, Cody Franson, James Reimer
Bruins: Brad Marchand, Jaromir Jagr, Patrice Bergeron, Zdeno Chara, Dennis Seidenberg, Tuukka Rask
Prediction: 4-2 Bruins. Though Toronto excelled in many aspects of their game this year and are riding a wave of excitement after making the playoffs for the first time since 2004, they are simply too inexperienced. Considering the veterans, offensive depth and dominant goaltending the Bruins have, the Leafs will be in tough to win four of seven. Whatever the case, these two teams really don't like each other and it's going to be a fun series to watch.
Thanks for reading everyone! I'd love to hear your predictions in the comment section, and please share if you like the content here at WAAP. No gif today, but I'll be back later tonight with a special preview of the IIHF World Championships, starting in a few days.
No comments:
Post a Comment